Natural disaster risk in Baxter County, Arkansas
Arkansas · population 41,603 · FIPS 05005
Overall: relatively low risk
Baxter County has a composite risk score of 72.3 out of 100 — higher than 72% of US counties. It ranks 19 of 75 in Arkansas (1 = highest risk). Its highest-rated hazards are ice storm, strong wind, tornado.
Drought now: Yes: D2 Severe Drought, 3 weeks
Yes. On the U.S. Drought Monitor map valid 13 October 2026, 41.28% of Baxter County is in D2 Severe Drought. Some of it has been at D2 or worse for 3 weeks in a row. In all, 59.71% of the county is in drought (D1 to D4).
Drought in Baxter County: the last 52 weeks · droughtmonitor.unl.edu
The U.S. Drought Monitor is jointly produced by the National Drought Mitigation Center at the University of Nebraska-Lincoln, the United States Department of Agriculture, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration and the National Aeronautics and Space Administration. Map courtesy of NDMC.
Risk, loss, vulnerability and resilience
| Measure | Rating and score |
|---|---|
| Overall risk Expected annual loss, adjusted for social vulnerability and community resilience. |
Relatively low 72.3 |
| Expected annual loss About $21.0 million a year, on average, across all 18 hazards. |
Relatively low 62.2 |
| Social vulnerability Higher means people may find it harder to prepare and recover. |
Very high 84.3 |
| Community resilience Higher means a stronger ability to prepare, adapt and recover. |
Very low 17.1 |
Risk by hazard
FEMA's risk rating for each of 18 natural hazards in Baxter County, highest first. "Not applicable" means the hazard is not modelled here.
| Hazard | Risk rating and score |
|---|---|
| Ice storm | Very high 99 |
| Strong wind | Relatively high 93 |
| Tornado | Relatively moderate 86 |
| Lightning | Relatively moderate 80 |
| Winter weather | Relatively moderate 79 |
| Cold wave | Relatively moderate 72 |
| Earthquake | Relatively low 85 |
| Landslide | Relatively low 82 |
| Heat wave | Relatively low 76 |
| Wildfire | Relatively low 71 |
| Inland (riverine) flooding | Relatively low 64 |
| Hail | Relatively low 34 |
| Hurricane | Very low 35 |
| Avalanche | Not applicable |
| Coastal flooding | Not applicable |
| Drought | No rating |
| Tsunami | Not applicable |
| Volcanic activity | Not applicable |
FEMA disaster declarations for Baxter County
Federal declarations that designated Baxter County, since 1 Jan 2024 (the period this site keeps from OpenFEMA). Older declarations are in FEMA's own dataset.
Yes. Baxter County has been named in 3 FEMA declarations since 1 Jan 2024. The latest is EM-3636-AR (Severe Winter Storm), declared 24 Jan 2026.
| Declaration | Kind | Incident | Declared | Individual assistance here |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| EM-3636-AR | Emergency | Severe Winter Storm | 24 Jan 2026 | No |
| EM-3627-AR | Emergency | Severe Storms, Tornadoes, and Flooding | 5 Apr 2025 | No |
| DR-4788-AR | Major disaster | Severe Storms, Straight-Line Winds, Tornadoes, and Flooding | 30 May 2024 | Yes |
All FEMA declarations in Arkansas, with estimated apply-by dates · Open FEMA deadlines
This product uses the Federal Emergency Management Agency's OpenFEMA API, but is not endorsed by FEMA. The Federal Government or FEMA cannot vouch for the data or analyses derived from these data after the data have been retrieved from the Agency's website(s). Dataset: Disaster Declarations Summaries - v2.
How to read these ratings
- Ratings run in five steps: very low, relatively low, relatively moderate, relatively high and very high. They compare a county with every other US county; they are not a measure of danger on their own.
- Scores run from 0 to 100 and are national percentiles. The bar shows the score: a score of 80 means a higher value than 80% of US counties.
- Overall risk combines the expected annual loss with social vulnerability and community resilience.
- Expected annual loss is the average yearly loss to buildings, people and agriculture the model expects from all 18 hazards.
- Social vulnerability describes how hard it may be for people to prepare for and recover from a disaster. Higher is worse.
- Community resilience describes a community's ability to prepare, adapt and recover. Higher is better.
- "Not applicable" means FEMA does not model that hazard there (for example, hurricanes far inland).
About this data
Source: FEMA National Risk Index, version 1.20, released December 2025, published by the Federal Emergency Management Agency (US public domain). About the National Risk Index. The index is a model of relative risk built from historical hazard records, what is exposed and community factors. It is not a forecast, it does not describe any single property, and it is not insurance or financial advice. For decisions about a specific address, check FEMA's flood maps and your local emergency management office.
Questions
What is the natural disaster risk in Baxter County, Arkansas?
FEMA's National Risk Index rates the overall risk in Baxter County as relatively low, with a score of 72.3 out of 100 (higher than 72% of US counties). That is a comparison with other US counties, not a forecast.
What are the biggest natural hazards in Baxter County?
The hazards rated highest for Baxter County are ice storm (very high), strong wind (relatively high), tornado (relatively moderate).
What is the flood risk in Baxter County?
FEMA rates inland (river and rain) flooding risk in Baxter County as relatively low. For a specific property, check the FEMA flood map and your local floodplain office.
Has Baxter County had a FEMA disaster declaration?
Yes. Baxter County has been named in 3 FEMA declarations since 1 Jan 2024. The latest is EM-3636-AR (Severe Winter Storm), declared 24 Jan 2026.
Is Baxter County in a drought?
Yes. On the U.S. Drought Monitor map valid 13 October 2026, 41.28% of Baxter County is in D2 Severe Drought. Some of it has been at D2 or worse for 3 weeks in a row. In all, 59.71% of the county is in drought (D1 to D4).
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