Natural disaster risk in Pinal County, Arizona
Arizona · population 424,095 · FIPS 04021
Overall: relatively moderate risk
Pinal County has a composite risk score of 93.8 out of 100 — higher than 93% of US counties. It ranks 5 of 15 in Arizona (1 = highest risk). Its highest-rated hazards are lightning, heat wave, wildfire.
Drought now: Yes: D2 Severe Drought, 27 weeks
Yes. On the U.S. Drought Monitor map valid 13 October 2026, 8.28% of Pinal County is in D2 Severe Drought. Some of it has been at D2 or worse for 27 weeks in a row. In all, 26.1% of the county is in drought (D1 to D4).
Drought in Pinal County: the last 52 weeks · droughtmonitor.unl.edu
The U.S. Drought Monitor is jointly produced by the National Drought Mitigation Center at the University of Nebraska-Lincoln, the United States Department of Agriculture, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration and the National Aeronautics and Space Administration. Map courtesy of NDMC.
Risk, loss, vulnerability and resilience
| Measure | Rating and score |
|---|---|
| Overall risk Expected annual loss, adjusted for social vulnerability and community resilience. |
Relatively moderate 93.8 |
| Expected annual loss About $137.5 million a year, on average, across all 18 hazards. |
Relatively moderate 93.5 |
| Social vulnerability Higher means people may find it harder to prepare and recover. |
Relatively moderate 43.7 |
| Community resilience Higher means a stronger ability to prepare, adapt and recover. |
Very low 13.9 |
Risk by hazard
FEMA's risk rating for each of 18 natural hazards in Pinal County, highest first. "Not applicable" means the hazard is not modelled here.
| Hazard | Risk rating and score |
|---|---|
| Lightning | Very high 97 |
| Heat wave | Relatively high 98 |
| Wildfire | Relatively high 97 |
| Inland (riverine) flooding | Relatively high 96 |
| Drought | Relatively high 95 |
| Hail | Relatively moderate 82 |
| Strong wind | Relatively moderate 75 |
| Earthquake | Relatively low 79 |
| Tornado | Relatively low 37 |
| Landslide | Very low 50 |
| Avalanche | Very low 26 |
| Hurricane | Very low 18 |
| Winter weather | Very low 15 |
| Cold wave | Very low 3 |
| Coastal flooding | Not applicable |
| Ice storm | Not applicable |
| Tsunami | Not applicable |
| Volcanic activity | Not applicable |
FEMA disaster declarations for Pinal County
Federal declarations that designated Pinal County, since 1 Jan 2024 (the period this site keeps from OpenFEMA). Older declarations are in FEMA's own dataset.
Yes. Pinal County has been named in 3 FEMA declarations since 1 Jan 2024. The latest is FM-5585-AZ (Cody Fire), declared 22 May 2025.
| Declaration | Kind | Incident | Declared | Individual assistance here |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FM-5585-AZ | Fire management | Cody Fire | 22 May 2025 | No |
| FM-5505-AZ | Fire management | Shake Fire | 9 Jul 2024 | No |
| FM-5493-AZ | Fire management | Simmons Fire | 29 May 2024 | No |
All FEMA declarations in Arizona, with estimated apply-by dates · Open FEMA deadlines
This product uses the Federal Emergency Management Agency's OpenFEMA API, but is not endorsed by FEMA. The Federal Government or FEMA cannot vouch for the data or analyses derived from these data after the data have been retrieved from the Agency's website(s). Dataset: Disaster Declarations Summaries - v2.
How to read these ratings
- Ratings run in five steps: very low, relatively low, relatively moderate, relatively high and very high. They compare a county with every other US county; they are not a measure of danger on their own.
- Scores run from 0 to 100 and are national percentiles. The bar shows the score: a score of 80 means a higher value than 80% of US counties.
- Overall risk combines the expected annual loss with social vulnerability and community resilience.
- Expected annual loss is the average yearly loss to buildings, people and agriculture the model expects from all 18 hazards.
- Social vulnerability describes how hard it may be for people to prepare for and recover from a disaster. Higher is worse.
- Community resilience describes a community's ability to prepare, adapt and recover. Higher is better.
- "Not applicable" means FEMA does not model that hazard there (for example, hurricanes far inland).
About this data
Source: FEMA National Risk Index, version 1.20, released December 2025, published by the Federal Emergency Management Agency (US public domain). About the National Risk Index. The index is a model of relative risk built from historical hazard records, what is exposed and community factors. It is not a forecast, it does not describe any single property, and it is not insurance or financial advice. For decisions about a specific address, check FEMA's flood maps and your local emergency management office.
Questions
What is the natural disaster risk in Pinal County, Arizona?
FEMA's National Risk Index rates the overall risk in Pinal County as relatively moderate, with a score of 93.8 out of 100 (higher than 93% of US counties). That is a comparison with other US counties, not a forecast.
What are the biggest natural hazards in Pinal County?
The hazards rated highest for Pinal County are lightning (very high), heat wave (relatively high), wildfire (relatively high).
What is the flood risk in Pinal County?
FEMA rates inland (river and rain) flooding risk in Pinal County as relatively high. For a specific property, check the FEMA flood map and your local floodplain office.
Has Pinal County had a FEMA disaster declaration?
Yes. Pinal County has been named in 3 FEMA declarations since 1 Jan 2024. The latest is FM-5585-AZ (Cody Fire), declared 22 May 2025.
Is Pinal County in a drought?
Yes. On the U.S. Drought Monitor map valid 13 October 2026, 8.28% of Pinal County is in D2 Severe Drought. Some of it has been at D2 or worse for 27 weeks in a row. In all, 26.1% of the county is in drought (D1 to D4).
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