Natural disaster risk in Navajo County, Arizona
Arizona · population 106,501 · FIPS 04017
Overall: relatively moderate risk
Navajo County has a composite risk score of 88.1 out of 100 — higher than 88% of US counties. It ranks 11 of 15 in Arizona (1 = highest risk). Its highest-rated hazards are lightning, winter weather, wildfire.
Drought now: Yes: D2 Severe Drought, at least 54 weeks
Yes. On the U.S. Drought Monitor map valid 13 October 2026, 37.16% of Navajo County is in D2 Severe Drought. Some of it has been at D2 or worse for at least 54 weeks in a row. In all, 48.87% of the county is in drought (D1 to D4).
Drought in Navajo County: the last 52 weeks · droughtmonitor.unl.edu
The U.S. Drought Monitor is jointly produced by the National Drought Mitigation Center at the University of Nebraska-Lincoln, the United States Department of Agriculture, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration and the National Aeronautics and Space Administration. Map courtesy of NDMC.
Risk, loss, vulnerability and resilience
| Measure | Rating and score |
|---|---|
| Overall risk Expected annual loss, adjusted for social vulnerability and community resilience. |
Relatively moderate 88.1 |
| Expected annual loss About $40.0 million a year, on average, across all 18 hazards. |
Relatively low 79.7 |
| Social vulnerability Higher means people may find it harder to prepare and recover. |
Very high 97.7 |
| Community resilience Higher means a stronger ability to prepare, adapt and recover. |
Very low 3.6 |
Risk by hazard
FEMA's risk rating for each of 18 natural hazards in Navajo County, highest first. "Not applicable" means the hazard is not modelled here.
| Hazard | Risk rating and score |
|---|---|
| Lightning | Very high 99 |
| Winter weather | Very high 96 |
| Wildfire | Relatively high 98 |
| Landslide | Relatively moderate 93 |
| Inland (riverine) flooding | Relatively moderate 89 |
| Cold wave | Relatively moderate 73 |
| Ice storm | Relatively moderate 63 |
| Earthquake | Relatively low 81 |
| Heat wave | Relatively low 56 |
| Drought | Relatively low 52 |
| Strong wind | Relatively low 40 |
| Hail | Relatively low 34 |
| Volcanic activity | Very low 53 |
| Avalanche | Very low 50 |
| Tornado | Very low 8 |
| Coastal flooding | Not applicable |
| Hurricane | No rating |
| Tsunami | Not applicable |
FEMA disaster declarations for Navajo County
Federal declarations that designated Navajo County, since 1 Jan 2024 (the period this site keeps from OpenFEMA). Older declarations are in FEMA's own dataset.
Not since 1 Jan 2024: no FEMA disaster declaration in the records this site read names Navajo County.
All FEMA declarations in Arizona, with estimated apply-by dates · Open FEMA deadlines
This product uses the Federal Emergency Management Agency's OpenFEMA API, but is not endorsed by FEMA. The Federal Government or FEMA cannot vouch for the data or analyses derived from these data after the data have been retrieved from the Agency's website(s). Dataset: Disaster Declarations Summaries - v2.
How to read these ratings
- Ratings run in five steps: very low, relatively low, relatively moderate, relatively high and very high. They compare a county with every other US county; they are not a measure of danger on their own.
- Scores run from 0 to 100 and are national percentiles. The bar shows the score: a score of 80 means a higher value than 80% of US counties.
- Overall risk combines the expected annual loss with social vulnerability and community resilience.
- Expected annual loss is the average yearly loss to buildings, people and agriculture the model expects from all 18 hazards.
- Social vulnerability describes how hard it may be for people to prepare for and recover from a disaster. Higher is worse.
- Community resilience describes a community's ability to prepare, adapt and recover. Higher is better.
- "Not applicable" means FEMA does not model that hazard there (for example, hurricanes far inland).
About this data
Source: FEMA National Risk Index, version 1.20, released December 2025, published by the Federal Emergency Management Agency (US public domain). About the National Risk Index. The index is a model of relative risk built from historical hazard records, what is exposed and community factors. It is not a forecast, it does not describe any single property, and it is not insurance or financial advice. For decisions about a specific address, check FEMA's flood maps and your local emergency management office.
Questions
What is the natural disaster risk in Navajo County, Arizona?
FEMA's National Risk Index rates the overall risk in Navajo County as relatively moderate, with a score of 88.1 out of 100 (higher than 88% of US counties). That is a comparison with other US counties, not a forecast.
What are the biggest natural hazards in Navajo County?
The hazards rated highest for Navajo County are lightning (very high), winter weather (very high), wildfire (relatively high).
What is the flood risk in Navajo County?
FEMA rates inland (river and rain) flooding risk in Navajo County as relatively moderate. For a specific property, check the FEMA flood map and your local floodplain office.
Has Navajo County had a FEMA disaster declaration?
Not since 1 Jan 2024: no FEMA disaster declaration in the records this site read names Navajo County.
Is Navajo County in a drought?
Yes. On the U.S. Drought Monitor map valid 13 October 2026, 37.16% of Navajo County is in D2 Severe Drought. Some of it has been at D2 or worse for at least 54 weeks in a row. In all, 48.87% of the county is in drought (D1 to D4).
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