Natural disaster risk in Maricopa County, Arizona
Arizona · population 4,418,836 · FIPS 04013
Overall: very high risk
Maricopa County has a composite risk score of 99.9 out of 100 — among the highest 1% of US counties. It ranks 1 of 15 in Arizona (1 = highest risk). Its highest-rated hazards are heat wave, hail, inland (riverine) flooding.
Drought now: Yes: D2 Severe Drought, 30 weeks
Yes. On the U.S. Drought Monitor map valid 13 October 2026, 31.72% of Maricopa County is in D2 Severe Drought. Some of it has been at D2 or worse for 30 weeks in a row. In all, 78.56% of the county is in drought (D1 to D4).
Drought in Maricopa County: the last 52 weeks · droughtmonitor.unl.edu
The U.S. Drought Monitor is jointly produced by the National Drought Mitigation Center at the University of Nebraska-Lincoln, the United States Department of Agriculture, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration and the National Aeronautics and Space Administration. Map courtesy of NDMC.
Risk, loss, vulnerability and resilience
| Measure | Rating and score |
|---|---|
| Overall risk Expected annual loss, adjusted for social vulnerability and community resilience. |
Very high 99.9 |
| Expected annual loss About $2.2 billion a year, on average, across all 18 hazards. |
Very high 99.9 |
| Social vulnerability Higher means people may find it harder to prepare and recover. |
Relatively low 27.1 |
| Community resilience Higher means a stronger ability to prepare, adapt and recover. |
Very low 18 |
Risk by hazard
FEMA's risk rating for each of 18 natural hazards in Maricopa County, highest first. "Not applicable" means the hazard is not modelled here.
| Hazard | Risk rating and score |
|---|---|
| Heat wave | Very high 100 |
| Hail | Very high 99 |
| Inland (riverine) flooding | Very high 99 |
| Strong wind | Very high 99 |
| Wildfire | Relatively high 99 |
| Drought | Relatively high 97 |
| Lightning | Relatively high 95 |
| Earthquake | Relatively moderate 96 |
| Tornado | Relatively moderate 84 |
| Landslide | Relatively low 83 |
| Winter weather | Relatively low 38 |
| Avalanche | Very low 32 |
| Hurricane | Very low 26 |
| Coastal flooding | Not applicable |
| Cold wave | No rating |
| Ice storm | Not applicable |
| Tsunami | Not applicable |
| Volcanic activity | Not applicable |
FEMA disaster declarations for Maricopa County
Federal declarations that designated Maricopa County, since 1 Jan 2024 (the period this site keeps from OpenFEMA). Older declarations are in FEMA's own dataset.
Yes. Maricopa County has been named in 2 FEMA declarations since 1 Jan 2024. The latest is FM-5501-AZ (Boulder View Fire), declared 28 Jun 2024.
| Declaration | Kind | Incident | Declared | Individual assistance here |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FM-5501-AZ | Fire management | Boulder View Fire | 28 Jun 2024 | No |
| FM-5496-AZ | Fire management | Rose Fire | 12 Jun 2024 | No |
All FEMA declarations in Arizona, with estimated apply-by dates · Open FEMA deadlines
This product uses the Federal Emergency Management Agency's OpenFEMA API, but is not endorsed by FEMA. The Federal Government or FEMA cannot vouch for the data or analyses derived from these data after the data have been retrieved from the Agency's website(s). Dataset: Disaster Declarations Summaries - v2.
How to read these ratings
- Ratings run in five steps: very low, relatively low, relatively moderate, relatively high and very high. They compare a county with every other US county; they are not a measure of danger on their own.
- Scores run from 0 to 100 and are national percentiles. The bar shows the score: a score of 80 means a higher value than 80% of US counties.
- Overall risk combines the expected annual loss with social vulnerability and community resilience.
- Expected annual loss is the average yearly loss to buildings, people and agriculture the model expects from all 18 hazards.
- Social vulnerability describes how hard it may be for people to prepare for and recover from a disaster. Higher is worse.
- Community resilience describes a community's ability to prepare, adapt and recover. Higher is better.
- "Not applicable" means FEMA does not model that hazard there (for example, hurricanes far inland).
About this data
Source: FEMA National Risk Index, version 1.20, released December 2025, published by the Federal Emergency Management Agency (US public domain). About the National Risk Index. The index is a model of relative risk built from historical hazard records, what is exposed and community factors. It is not a forecast, it does not describe any single property, and it is not insurance or financial advice. For decisions about a specific address, check FEMA's flood maps and your local emergency management office.
Questions
What is the natural disaster risk in Maricopa County, Arizona?
FEMA's National Risk Index rates the overall risk in Maricopa County as very high, with a score of 99.9 out of 100 (among the highest 1% of US counties). That is a comparison with other US counties, not a forecast.
What are the biggest natural hazards in Maricopa County?
The hazards rated highest for Maricopa County are heat wave (very high), hail (very high), inland (riverine) flooding (very high).
What is the flood risk in Maricopa County?
FEMA rates inland (river and rain) flooding risk in Maricopa County as very high. For a specific property, check the FEMA flood map and your local floodplain office.
Has Maricopa County had a FEMA disaster declaration?
Yes. Maricopa County has been named in 2 FEMA declarations since 1 Jan 2024. The latest is FM-5501-AZ (Boulder View Fire), declared 28 Jun 2024.
Is Maricopa County in a drought?
Yes. On the U.S. Drought Monitor map valid 13 October 2026, 31.72% of Maricopa County is in D2 Severe Drought. Some of it has been at D2 or worse for 30 weeks in a row. In all, 78.56% of the county is in drought (D1 to D4).
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