Natural disaster risk in Apache County, Arizona
Arizona · population 65,844 · FIPS 04001
Overall: relatively low risk
Apache County has a composite risk score of 78.8 out of 100 — higher than 78% of US counties. It ranks 13 of 15 in Arizona (1 = highest risk). Its highest-rated hazards are lightning, wildfire, winter weather.
Drought now: Yes: D2 Severe Drought, at least 54 weeks
Yes. On the U.S. Drought Monitor map valid 13 October 2026, 24.42% of Apache County is in D2 Severe Drought. Some of it has been at D2 or worse for at least 54 weeks in a row. In all, 81.53% of the county is in drought (D1 to D4).
Drought in Apache County: the last 52 weeks · droughtmonitor.unl.edu
The U.S. Drought Monitor is jointly produced by the National Drought Mitigation Center at the University of Nebraska-Lincoln, the United States Department of Agriculture, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration and the National Aeronautics and Space Administration. Map courtesy of NDMC.
Risk, loss, vulnerability and resilience
| Measure | Rating and score |
|---|---|
| Overall risk Expected annual loss, adjusted for social vulnerability and community resilience. |
Relatively low 78.8 |
| Expected annual loss About $21.0 million a year, on average, across all 18 hazards. |
Relatively low 62.1 |
| Social vulnerability Higher means people may find it harder to prepare and recover. |
Very high 99.8 |
| Community resilience Higher means a stronger ability to prepare, adapt and recover. |
Very low 0.3 |
Risk by hazard
FEMA's risk rating for each of 18 natural hazards in Apache County, highest first. "Not applicable" means the hazard is not modelled here.
| Hazard | Risk rating and score |
|---|---|
| Lightning | Very high 99 |
| Wildfire | Relatively high 97 |
| Winter weather | Relatively high 90 |
| Landslide | Relatively moderate 93 |
| Inland (riverine) flooding | Relatively moderate 80 |
| Earthquake | Relatively low 67 |
| Cold wave | Relatively low 62 |
| Ice storm | Relatively low 53 |
| Drought | Relatively low 50 |
| Heat wave | Relatively low 46 |
| Volcanic activity | Very low 57 |
| Avalanche | Very low 50 |
| Hurricane | Very low 11 |
| Hail | Very low 8 |
| Strong wind | Very low 8 |
| Tornado | Very low 3 |
| Coastal flooding | Not applicable |
| Tsunami | Not applicable |
FEMA disaster declarations for Apache County
Federal declarations that designated Apache County, since 1 Jan 2024 (the period this site keeps from OpenFEMA). Older declarations are in FEMA's own dataset.
Yes. Apache County has been named in 1 FEMA declaration since 1 Jan 2024. The latest is FM-5584-AZ (Greer Fire), declared 14 May 2025.
| Declaration | Kind | Incident | Declared | Individual assistance here |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FM-5584-AZ | Fire management | Greer Fire | 14 May 2025 | No |
All FEMA declarations in Arizona, with estimated apply-by dates · Open FEMA deadlines
This product uses the Federal Emergency Management Agency's OpenFEMA API, but is not endorsed by FEMA. The Federal Government or FEMA cannot vouch for the data or analyses derived from these data after the data have been retrieved from the Agency's website(s). Dataset: Disaster Declarations Summaries - v2.
How to read these ratings
- Ratings run in five steps: very low, relatively low, relatively moderate, relatively high and very high. They compare a county with every other US county; they are not a measure of danger on their own.
- Scores run from 0 to 100 and are national percentiles. The bar shows the score: a score of 80 means a higher value than 80% of US counties.
- Overall risk combines the expected annual loss with social vulnerability and community resilience.
- Expected annual loss is the average yearly loss to buildings, people and agriculture the model expects from all 18 hazards.
- Social vulnerability describes how hard it may be for people to prepare for and recover from a disaster. Higher is worse.
- Community resilience describes a community's ability to prepare, adapt and recover. Higher is better.
- "Not applicable" means FEMA does not model that hazard there (for example, hurricanes far inland).
About this data
Source: FEMA National Risk Index, version 1.20, released December 2025, published by the Federal Emergency Management Agency (US public domain). About the National Risk Index. The index is a model of relative risk built from historical hazard records, what is exposed and community factors. It is not a forecast, it does not describe any single property, and it is not insurance or financial advice. For decisions about a specific address, check FEMA's flood maps and your local emergency management office.
Questions
What is the natural disaster risk in Apache County, Arizona?
FEMA's National Risk Index rates the overall risk in Apache County as relatively low, with a score of 78.8 out of 100 (higher than 78% of US counties). That is a comparison with other US counties, not a forecast.
What are the biggest natural hazards in Apache County?
The hazards rated highest for Apache County are lightning (very high), wildfire (relatively high), winter weather (relatively high).
What is the flood risk in Apache County?
FEMA rates inland (river and rain) flooding risk in Apache County as relatively moderate. For a specific property, check the FEMA flood map and your local floodplain office.
Has Apache County had a FEMA disaster declaration?
Yes. Apache County has been named in 1 FEMA declaration since 1 Jan 2024. The latest is FM-5584-AZ (Greer Fire), declared 14 May 2025.
Is Apache County in a drought?
Yes. On the U.S. Drought Monitor map valid 13 October 2026, 24.42% of Apache County is in D2 Severe Drought. Some of it has been at D2 or worse for at least 54 weeks in a row. In all, 81.53% of the county is in drought (D1 to D4).
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