Europe wildfire danger forecast
How much of each European country is forecast to be at high, very high or extreme fire danger today and over the next three days, from the European Forest Fire Information System (EFFIS) of the Copernicus Emergency Management Service. Dates are UTC days.
This is a forecast of fire weather, not a fire warning. Fire danger warnings, burning bans and forest closures are issued by each country's national and regional authorities; follow them. This site does not issue warnings.
What is the wildfire risk in Europe today?
EFFIS forecasts high or higher fire danger today in 16 countries, most widely in Hungary (29%), Cyprus (25%) and Slovakia (20%). Extreme danger is forecast in parts of North Macedonia, Italy and Greece.
The map needs JavaScript. Every country is listed below.
- High
- Very high
- Extreme
- Very extreme
- Low and moderate are not shaded.
Today, Mon 19 Oct: share of each country at high danger or above
| Country | High or above | Highest class | High · Very high · Extreme+ |
|---|---|---|---|
| Malta (few grid cells, approximate) | 86% | High | 86% · 0% · 0% |
| Hungary | 29% | High | 29% · 0% · 0% |
| Cyprus | 25% | Very high | 21% · 4% · 0% |
| Slovakia | 20% | High | 20% · 0% · 0% |
| North Macedonia | 16% | Extreme | 16% · under 1% · under 1% |
| Serbia | 16% | Very high | 14% · 1% · 0% |
| Albania | 14% | High | 14% · 0% · 0% |
| Portugal | 14% | High | 14% · 0% · 0% |
| Italy | 12% | Very extreme | 10% · under 1% · under 1% |
| Austria | 10% | High | 10% · 0% · 0% |
| Bulgaria | 7% | High | 7% · 0% · 0% |
| Czechia | 6% | High | 6% · 0% · 0% |
| Greece | 5% | Extreme | 4% · under 1% · under 1% |
| Bosnia and Herzegovina | 4% | High | 4% · 0% · 0% |
| Croatia | 3% | High | 3% · 0% · 0% |
| Romania | 2% | High | 2% · 0% · 0% |
| Spain | 1% | High | 1% · 0% · 0% |
| Türkiye | under 1% | High | under 1% · 0% · 0% |
| France | under 1% | High | under 1% · 0% · 0% |
Low or moderate only: Germany, Iceland, Kosovo, Latvia, Lithuania, Montenegro, Norway, Poland, Slovenia, Switzerland, Ukraine, United Kingdom, Belgium, Denmark, Estonia, Finland, Ireland, Luxembourg, Moldova, Netherlands, Sweden.
The next days
| Country | Today, Mon 19 Oct | Tue 20 Oct | Wed 21 Oct | Thu 22 Oct |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Malta | 86% high | 0% | 29% high | 86% high |
| Hungary | 29% high | 39% very high | 78% extreme | under 1% high |
| Serbia | 16% very high | 40% high | 67% extreme | 6% high |
| Cyprus | 25% very high | 30% high | 47% extreme | 54% very high |
| Slovakia | 20% high | 29% very high | 52% extreme | 0% |
| Portugal | 14% high | 20% high | 26% very high | 14% high |
| Czechia | 6% high | 11% high | 24% extreme | 0% |
| Bosnia and Herzegovina | 4% high | 18% high | 22% very high | under 1% high |
| North Macedonia | 16% extreme | 9% high | 20% high | 2% high |
| Croatia | 3% high | 16% high | 19% very high | 0% |
| Italy | 12% very extreme | 18% extreme | 5% extreme | 8% very extreme |
| Austria | 10% high | 17% extreme | 17% extreme | 0% |
| Albania | 14% high | 17% high | 15% high | 0% |
| Bulgaria | 7% high | 4% high | 16% high | 7% high |
| Kosovo | 0% | 2% high | 15% high | 0% |
| Romania | 2% high | under 1% high | 14% extreme | 1% high |
| Poland | 0% | 0% | 6% very high | 0% |
| Slovenia | 0% | 5% high | under 1% high | 0% |
| Greece | 5% extreme | 4% high | 4% very high | 4% high |
| Türkiye | under 1% high | 2% very high | 3% extreme | 4% high |
| Spain | 1% high | 2% extreme | 1% extreme | 1% high |
| France | under 1% high | under 1% very high | under 1% high | under 1% high |
| Ukraine | 0% | under 1% very high | under 1% high | under 1% high |
| Switzerland | 0% | under 1% high | 0% | 0% |
Share of the country at high danger or above, and the highest class anywhere in it.
The danger classes
- Low Fire Weather Index below 11.2
- Moderate Fire Weather Index 11.2 to 21.3
- High Fire Weather Index 21.3 to 38
- Very high Fire Weather Index 38 to 50
- Extreme Fire Weather Index 50 to 70
- Very extreme Fire Weather Index above 70
The Fire Weather Index rates how easily a fire would start and spread given recent temperature, humidity, wind and rain. It does not know about fuel, land use or whether a fire is burning. Active fires seen by satellite are on the live map and the wildfire page.
Questions
What is the wildfire risk in Europe today?
EFFIS forecasts high or higher fire danger today in 16 countries, most widely in Hungary (29%), Cyprus (25%) and Slovakia (20%). Extreme danger is forecast in parts of North Macedonia, Italy and Greece. This is the European Forest Fire Information System's fire danger forecast from the Copernicus Emergency Management Service, counted by country on this page.
What do high, very high and extreme fire danger mean?
They are EFFIS classes of the Fire Weather Index, a number computed from temperature, humidity, wind and rain over recent days that rates how easily a fire would start and spread. Low is below 11.2, moderate 11.2 to 21.3, high 21.3 to 38, very high 38 to 50, extreme 50 to 70 and very extreme above 70. The index rates the weather, not whether a fire is burning.
Is this an official fire warning?
No. It is a Europe-wide forecast of fire weather. Fire danger warnings, burning bans and access closures are issued by each country's national and regional authorities, and those are what you must follow. This site does not issue warnings.
How is the share of a country at high danger worked out?
EFFIS draws its forecast on a grid of about 10 km. This page reads that grid for each day and counts, for each country, the share of its land at each danger class, weighting each cell by its real area. Islands and border areas smaller than a grid cell can be missed, and the share says nothing about where in the country the danger is: the map does.
Europe weather warnings by country · Wildfire smoke map (North America) · all tools
Fire danger forecast: European Forest Fire Information System (EFFIS), Copernicus Emergency Management Service, © European Union, CC BY 4.0. Counted by country and re-drawn by this site. EFFIS data licence · EFFIS viewer. Forecast from the EFFIS model run on Météo-France data at about 10 km. Country areas from Natural Earth (public domain); islands and border strips smaller than a grid cell can be missed.