Disaster risk in Oceania by country
Which countries are most at risk from disasters? The European Commission's INFORM Risk Index scores each country in Oceania from 0 to 10 on the hazards it is exposed to, how vulnerable its people are, and how well it can cope. This page ranks 14 countries using INFORM Risk Index Mid 2026 (version 0.7.3, released 1 September 2026).
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INFORM measures the risk of a humanitarian crisis: that a disaster or conflict overwhelms a country and it needs outside help. Its overall score counts conflict as well as natural hazards, and it is high where people are poor and services are weak. So the overall ranking is not a list of the places with the most earthquakes or storms. For that, use the Natural hazard column, which is INFORM's own score for natural hazards alone.
This is a comparison between countries, not a forecast. A low score still means some risk. For warnings and decisions, follow the national disaster agency.
By region
Regions are INFORM's own groups (UN geographical regions).
Most exposed to natural hazards in Oceania
Ranked by INFORM's Natural hazard score (earthquake, river flood, tsunami, tropical cyclone, coastal flood, drought and epidemic), world rank of 191.
- Papua New Guinea has a natural hazard score of 6.0 (High), joint 20th of 191. Highest: Earthquake 9.2, Tsunami 7.1, Coastal flood 6.3. Overall INFORM Risk 6.6 (High), ranked joint 20th, with Vulnerability 6.0 and Lack of Coping Capacity 6.8.
- Solomon Islands has a natural hazard score of 5.3 (High), joint 34th of 191. Highest: Tsunami 7.8, Earthquake 7.1, Coastal flood 6.8. Overall INFORM Risk 4.6 (Medium), ranked joint 64th, with Vulnerability 5.0 and Lack of Coping Capacity 6.1.
- Vanuatu has a natural hazard score of 5.1 (High), joint 39th of 191. Highest: Tsunami 7.0, Tropical Cyclone 6.4, Earthquake 6.2. Overall INFORM Risk 4.3 (Medium), ranked joint 72nd, with Vulnerability 4.4 and Lack of Coping Capacity 6.1.
- Fiji has a natural hazard score of 5.0 (High), 44th of 191. Highest: Coastal flood 7.1, Tsunami 7.1, Tropical Cyclone 6.9. Overall INFORM Risk 3.1 (Low), ranked joint 112th, with Vulnerability 3.1 and Lack of Coping Capacity 3.2.
- Marshall Islands has a natural hazard score of 4.6 (Medium), joint 53rd of 191. Highest: Coastal flood 8.5, Tsunami 6.7, Drought 6.2. Overall INFORM Risk 3.6 (Medium), ranked joint 93rd, with Vulnerability 4.4 and Lack of Coping Capacity 4.1.
- Australia has a natural hazard score of 4.6 (Medium), joint 53rd of 191. Highest: Coastal flood 6.2, Drought 5.9, Tsunami 5.7. Overall INFORM Risk 2.4 (Low), ranked joint 152nd, with Vulnerability 2.1 and Lack of Coping Capacity 2.3.
Highest overall INFORM Risk in Oceania
Ranked by the overall INFORM Risk, which combines Hazard & Exposure (natural and human), Vulnerability and Lack of Coping Capacity. Equal scores share a rank.
- Papua New Guinea ranks joint 20th of 191 with an INFORM Risk of 6.6 (High). Its highest dimension is Hazard & Exposure at 7.1. Its natural hazard score is 6.0 (highest: Earthquake 9.2, Tsunami 7.1).
- Solomon Islands ranks joint 64th of 191 with an INFORM Risk of 4.6 (Medium). Its highest dimension is Lack of Coping Capacity at 6.1. Its natural hazard score is 5.3 (highest: Tsunami 7.8, Earthquake 7.1).
- Vanuatu ranks joint 72nd of 191 with an INFORM Risk of 4.3 (Medium). Its highest dimension is Lack of Coping Capacity at 6.1. Its natural hazard score is 5.1 (highest: Tsunami 7.0, Tropical Cyclone 6.4).
- Kiribati ranks joint 93rd of 191 with an INFORM Risk of 3.6 (Medium). Its highest dimension is Lack of Coping Capacity at 4.5. Its natural hazard score is 4.5 (highest: Coastal flood 8.4, Tsunami 7.7).
- Marshall Islands ranks joint 93rd of 191 with an INFORM Risk of 3.6 (Medium). Its highest dimension is Vulnerability at 4.4. Its natural hazard score is 4.6 (highest: Coastal flood 8.5, Tsunami 6.7).
All 14 countries in Oceania
Scores from 0 (lowest) to 10 (highest). Select a column heading to sort by it; select it again to reverse. The overall class is INFORM's; classes for the dimensions use INFORM's published thresholds.
| World rank | Country | INFORM Risk | Hazard & Exposure | Natural hazard | Vulnerability | Lack of Coping Capacity |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| =20 | Papua New Guinea | 6.6 High |
7.1 | 6.0 #20 |
6.0 | 6.8 |
| =64 | Solomon Islands | 4.6 Medium |
3.1 | 5.3 #34 |
5.0 | 6.1 |
| =72 | Vanuatu | 4.3 Medium |
2.9 | 5.1 #39 |
4.4 | 6.1 |
| =93 | Kiribati | 3.6 Medium |
2.5 | 4.5 #60 |
4.1 | 4.5 |
| =93 | Marshall Islands | 3.6 Medium |
2.6 | 4.6 #53 |
4.4 | 4.1 |
| =100 | Micronesia | 3.4 Low |
1.7 | 3.2 #126 |
4.7 | 4.9 |
| =112 | Fiji | 3.1 Low |
2.9 | 5.0 #44 |
3.1 | 3.2 |
| =120 | Tonga | 3.0 Low |
2.2 | 3.9 #85 |
2.7 | 4.4 |
| =133 | Samoa | 2.7 Low |
1.7 | 3.1 #134 |
3.1 | 3.8 |
| =145 | Tuvalu | 2.5 Low |
1.3 | 2.5 #159 |
2.7 | 4.7 |
| =152 | Australia | 2.4 Low |
3.0 | 4.6 #53 |
2.1 | 2.3 |
| =163 | Palau | 2.2 Very Low |
1.2 | 2.3 #168 |
2.5 | 3.6 |
| =167 | Nauru | 2.1 Very Low |
0.8 | 1.6 #181 |
3.1 | 3.6 |
| =183 | New Zealand | 1.6 Very Low |
2.4 | 4.1 #73 |
1.1 | 1.6 |
"=" marks a rank shared with another country. The small number under the natural hazard score is that country's world rank on natural hazards (computed here from INFORM's scores).
How INFORM works
INFORM scores three dimensions, each from 0 to 10:
- Hazard & Exposure: the events that could happen and the people exposed to them. It has two categories: Natural (earthquake, river flood, tsunami, tropical cyclone, coastal flood, drought and epidemic) and Human (conflict).
- Vulnerability: how susceptible people are to harm, whatever the hazard (socio-economic vulnerability and vulnerable groups).
- Lack of Coping Capacity: the lack of institutions and infrastructure to manage a disaster.
The overall INFORM Risk multiplies them: Risk = (Hazard & Exposure × Vulnerability × Lack of Coping Capacity)1/3. Because it is multiplicative, the risk is zero if any one dimension is zero, and a country very exposed to hazards can still have a low overall risk when it is well prepared. INFORM puts each score into five classes, from Very Low to Very High. Full detail: INFORM Risk methodology.
JRC's note on this release: “Score Comparability Notice (September 2026):Changes in the September 2026 INFORM Risk midterm release are driven entirely by external input data updates; methodology and historical series are unchanged. Due to the unusually large scale of input data changes, direct comparisons with the March 2026 release should be made with caution. Figures represent a standalone snapshot. Refer to source documentation for detailed information on source data updates.”
Source and citation
Data: INFORM Risk Index, European Commission Joint Research Centre, INFORM Risk Index Mid 2026 (version 0.7.3, released 1 September 2026), from the results and data page.
Citation, as INFORM asks:
INFORM. 2026. INFORM Risk Index midterm 2026. https://drmkc.jrc.ec.europa.eu/inform-index. INFORM is a collaboration of the Inter-Agency Standing Committee Reference Group on Risk, Early Warning and Preparedness and the European Commission. The European Commission Joint Research Centre is the scientific lead of INFORM.
Licence: Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International (CC BY 4.0). Reuse is authorised, provided the source is acknowledged. Changes made here: scores are shown to one decimal as published; the region filter, sorting, the dimension classes (from INFORM's thresholds) and the natural hazard ranks are this site's. JRC provides the data “as is”.
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