Coastal erosion at Holderness
For the coast of Holderness, from Bridlington to Spurn (Flamborough Head to Gibraltar Point SMP, north of the Humber), NCERM 2024 projects erosion of up to 256 m by 2055 and up to 947 m by 2105 if the Shoreline Management Plan is delivered, using the Higher Central climate allowance (UKCP18 RCP8.5 sea level rise, 70th percentile). The median across its 205 mapped frontages is 216 m by 2105.
Data: Environment Agency, NCERM 2024 (published 28 January 2025), Open Government Licence v3.0. East Riding of Yorkshire. All places
These are projections from a national model for stretches of coast, not a forecast for any one property. Distances are cumulative, in metres.
All 12 NCERM scenarios at Holderness
Largest ("up to") and median projected erosion distance among the 205 frontages of Holderness, from Bridlington to Spurn (Flamborough Head to Gibraltar Point SMP, north of the Humber).
| Management | Climate | By 2055: up to | median | By 2105: up to | median |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shoreline Management Plan delivered | Present day climate climate as in 2020 |
158 m | 42 m | 536 m | 105 m |
| Shoreline Management Plan delivered | Higher Central allowance UKCP18 RCP8.5 sea level rise, 70th percentile |
256 m | 66 m | 947 m | 216 m |
| Shoreline Management Plan delivered | Upper End allowance UKCP18 RCP8.5 sea level rise, 95th percentile |
278 m | 72 m | 1,053 m | 247 m |
| No Future Intervention | Present day climate climate as in 2020 |
201 m | 53 m | 289 m | 144 m |
| No Future Intervention | Higher Central allowance UKCP18 RCP8.5 sea level rise, 70th percentile |
239 m | 82 m | 466 m | 295 m |
| No Future Intervention | Upper End allowance UKCP18 RCP8.5 sea level rise, 95th percentile |
247 m | 90 m | 512 m | 336 m |
Shoreline management policy
This coast is in the Flamborough Head to Gibraltar Point Shoreline Management Plan (policy units A, B, C, D, E, F, G, H, I, L). The policy for each frontage up to 2055, as recorded in NCERM:
- No Active Intervention: 132 of 205 frontages (64%) — no planned investment in defences or other works, so the coast is left to change naturally.
- Hold The Line: 62 of 205 frontages (30%) — keeping the shoreline where it is by maintaining or upgrading the defences.
- Managed Realignment: 11 of 205 frontages (5%) — allowing the shoreline to move, with management to control or limit that movement.
From 2055 to 2105: No Active Intervention 132 · Hold The Line 73 frontages.
Defence types recorded on these frontages: Not recorded (123), Vertical Wall - Concrete (39), Revetment - Permeable (16), Natural (15), Vertical Wall - Brick/Masonry (6), Revetment - Impermeable (6).
The plans and policy units in full: Shoreline Management Plan Explorer
Places on the Holderness coast
Skipsea · Hornsea · Mappleton · Aldbrough · Withernsea · Kilnsea and Easington
Flood warnings for this coast now
The same storms and high tides that drive erosion can flood the coast. See the Environment Agency's flood warnings and flood alerts in East Riding of Yorkshire now, updated every 15 minutes, or all of England. To be told yourself, sign up for free flood warnings.
There is no national warning service for cliff falls or erosion. Keep away from cliff edges and the foot of cliffs, especially after storms and heavy rain, and follow any local closures.
What the scenarios mean
- Periods: medium term, up to 2055, and long term, up to 2105. Distances are cumulative over time and given in metres: the 2105 figure includes the erosion up to 2055.
- Shoreline Management Plan delivered: the policies in the Shoreline Management Plan for each stretch (hold the line, managed realignment, no active intervention) are carried out.
- No Future Intervention: no defences are maintained, repaired or built from now on.
- Climate: Present day climate (as in 2020); the Higher Central allowance, which uses UKCP18 RCP8.5 sea level rise at the 70th percentile; and the Upper End allowance, at the 95th percentile.
- The headline figures on these pages use the Shoreline Management Plan delivered with the Higher Central allowance, the combination the Environment Agency uses for coastal erosion with climate change in its National assessment of flood and coastal erosion risk in England 2024. Unlike the previous NCERM, the 2024 data gives one figure per scenario and no percentile range of erosion.
What these figures cannot tell you
- They are projections from a national model, not a forecast for a date or a house. The Environment Agency says the data is for guidance only, cannot provide details for individual properties, shows areas of land likely to be at erosion risk rather than the precise future position of the shoreline, and that erosion may happen faster or slower than shown.
- Cliffs often retreat in sudden falls and landslides rather than a steady amount each year, so a figure for 2055 does not mean the same distance is lost every year.
- For one address, use the government's Check coastal erosion management in your area service. Shoreline Management Plan policy units and the plans themselves are in the Shoreline Management Plan Explorer. The local council's coastal team holds local monitoring and plans.
- This site gives no property, planning or insurance advice.
Wales and Scotland are not covered
NCERM 2024 is the Environment Agency's map for England, and these pages show England only. Natural Resources Wales publishes a separate NCERM for Wales on DataMapWales. For Scotland, past and projected coastal change is mapped by Dynamic Coast.
About this data
Data: Environment Agency, NCERM 2024 (published 28 January 2025), Open Government Licence v3.0. Source: National Coastal Erosion Risk Mapping (NCERM) - National (2024), Environment Agency, published under the Open Government Licence v3.0. © Environment Agency copyright and/or database right 2025. All rights reserved. Read from the agency's OGC API Features service; built 2026-10-18.
- NCERM splits the coast into frontages, lengths of coast with consistent cliff and defence characteristics, and gives each one an erosion distance for each scenario. NCERM names no towns: each place here is a reference point (from OpenStreetMap, © OpenStreetMap contributors) and the frontages whose centre lies within the distance stated on its page, or a named stretch of coast.
- "Up to" is the largest distance among those frontages; the median is the middle one. A frontage the agency maps as fully held by defences can show 0 m.
- Ground instability zones, where the data has them, mark geologically complex cliffs where land has moved before; the names shown are the dataset's own.
Questions
How much coastal erosion is projected at Holderness?
For the coast of Holderness, from Bridlington to Spurn (Flamborough Head to Gibraltar Point SMP, north of the Humber), NCERM 2024 projects erosion of up to 256 m by 2055 and up to 947 m by 2105 if the Shoreline Management Plan is delivered, using the Higher Central climate allowance (UKCP18 RCP8.5 sea level rise, 70th percentile). The median across its 205 mapped frontages is 216 m by 2105. Distances are cumulative and in metres.
Is the coast at Holderness defended?
The Shoreline Management Plan policy for most of the 205 frontages of Holderness, from Bridlington to Spurn (Flamborough Head to Gibraltar Point SMP, north of the Humber) up to 2055 is "No Active Intervention", which means no planned investment in defences or other works, so the coast is left to change naturally. Other frontages there have a different policy; the table on this page shows each one. The Shoreline Management Plan Explorer has the policy units and the plans themselves.
Is there a warning service for coastal erosion?
No. The Environment Agency's flood warnings cover flooding from the sea, rivers and groundwater, which on many coasts arrives with the same storms that cause erosion, but there is no national warning service for cliff falls or erosion. Stay away from cliff edges and the foot of cliffs, especially after storms and heavy rain, and follow any closures the council or landowner puts in place.
Does this show whether a property in Holderness is at risk?
NCERM is for guidance only. The Environment Agency says it cannot provide details for individual properties, that it shows areas of land likely to be at erosion risk rather than the precise future position of the shoreline, and that erosion may happen faster or slower than shown. For a single address use the government's "Check coastal erosion management in your area" service, and for local plans and monitoring contact the coastal team of the local council.
Coastal erosion elsewhere in Yorkshire
Skipsea · Hornsea · Mappleton · Aldbrough · Withernsea · Kilnsea and Easington · Robin Hood's Bay · Runswick Bay