Coastal erosion in England by place
How far the coast is projected to erode by 2055 and by 2105 at well-known eroding frontages, from Holderness and Happisburgh to Fairlight and Barton-on-Sea, from the Environment Agency's National Coastal Erosion Risk Mapping (NCERM) 2024. Figures are projections for stretches of coast under stated scenarios, not forecasts for any one property.
Data: Environment Agency, NCERM 2024 (published 28 January 2025), Open Government Licence v3.0. England only: Wales and Scotland have their own maps.
National figures: Environment Agency, National assessment of flood and coastal erosion risk in England 2024, Table 20; "with climate change" there means the Higher Central allowance. Without climate change the figures are 3,500 properties to 2055 and about 10,100 to 2105 with the plans delivered.
Projected erosion by place
Largest projected erosion distance among the NCERM frontages at each place ("up to"), in metres, cumulative. Plan delivered = Shoreline Management Plan delivered, Higher Central allowance (UKCP18 RCP8.5 sea level rise, 70th percentile). No intervention = No Future Intervention, Higher Central allowance (UKCP18 RCP8.5 sea level rise, 70th percentile).
Yorkshire
| Place | Frontages | Up to 2055, plan delivered | Up to 2105, plan delivered | Up to 2105, no intervention |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Holderness East Riding of Yorkshire |
205 | 256 m | 947 m | 466 m |
| Skipsea Holderness, East Riding of Yorkshire |
12 | 73 m | 233 m | 235 m |
| Hornsea Holderness, East Riding of Yorkshire |
23 | 158 m | 514 m | 453 m |
| Mappleton Holderness, East Riding of Yorkshire |
15 | 176 m | 571 m | 392 m |
| Aldbrough Holderness, East Riding of Yorkshire |
5 | 129 m | 418 m | 369 m |
| Withernsea Holderness, East Riding of Yorkshire |
19 | 80 m | 258 m | 466 m |
| Kilnsea and Easington Holderness, East Riding of Yorkshire |
8 | 114 m | 369 m | 369 m |
| Robin Hood's Bay North Yorkshire |
20 | 24 m | 77 m | 114 m |
| Runswick Bay North Yorkshire |
31 | 35 m | 111 m | 111 m |
Norfolk
| Place | Frontages | Up to 2055, plan delivered | Up to 2105, plan delivered | Up to 2105, no intervention |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Overstrand North Norfolk |
13 | 87 m | 189 m | 189 m |
| Trimingham North Norfolk |
5 | 127 m | 262 m | 262 m |
| Mundesley North Norfolk |
8 | 127 m | 262 m | 265 m |
| Bacton and Walcott North Norfolk |
17 | 70 m | 144 m | 144 m |
| Happisburgh North Norfolk |
18 | 74 m | 146 m | 146 m |
| Hemsby Great Yarmouth, Norfolk |
3 | 59 m | 140 m | 140 m |
Suffolk
| Place | Frontages | Up to 2055, plan delivered | Up to 2105, plan delivered | Up to 2105, no intervention |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Corton East Suffolk |
9 | 42 m | 95 m | 139 m |
| Pakefield Lowestoft, Suffolk |
11 | 58 m | 185 m | 217 m |
| Covehithe East Suffolk |
3 | 151 m | 482 m | 482 m |
| Southwold East Suffolk |
10 | 151 m | 482 m | 684 m |
| Dunwich East Suffolk |
3 | 40 m | 110 m | 110 m |
| Thorpeness East Suffolk |
3 | 20 m | 63 m | 63 m |
Essex and Kent
| Place | Frontages | Up to 2055, plan delivered | Up to 2105, plan delivered | Up to 2105, no intervention |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| The Naze, Walton-on-the-Naze Tendring, Essex |
10 | 69 m | 221 m | 350 m |
| Reculver Canterbury, Kent |
4 | 28 m | 92 m | 92 m |
| Folkestone Warren Folkestone, Kent |
26 | 38 m | 121 m | 198 m |
Sussex
| Place | Frontages | Up to 2055, plan delivered | Up to 2105, plan delivered | Up to 2105, no intervention |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fairlight Cove Rother, East Sussex |
22 | 60 m | 118 m | 118 m |
| Birling Gap Wealden, East Sussex |
3 | 17 m | 54 m | 54 m |
Hampshire and the Isle of Wight
| Place | Frontages | Up to 2055, plan delivered | Up to 2105, plan delivered | Up to 2105, no intervention |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Barton-on-Sea New Forest, Hampshire |
13 | 63 m | 216 m | 247 m |
| Ventnor Isle of Wight |
17 | 0 m | 0 m | 98 m |
| Blackgang Isle of Wight |
6 | 60 m | 196 m | 196 m |
Dorset and Devon
| Place | Frontages | Up to 2055, plan delivered | Up to 2105, plan delivered | Up to 2105, no intervention |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| West Bay Bridport, Dorset |
8 | 39 m | 90 m | 97 m |
| Charmouth Dorset |
8 | 31 m | 45 m | 45 m |
| Lyme Regis Dorset |
19 | 14 m | 45 m | 61 m |
| Torcross and Slapton Sands South Hams, Devon |
3 | 4 m | 14 m | 14 m |
| Hallsands South Hams, Devon |
13 | 23 m | 58 m | 80 m |
Largest projections on this page
Villages and towns only, by the largest frontage figure to 2105 with the plan delivered and the Higher Central allowance. This ranks the places listed here, not the whole English coast.
| Place | Up to 2105, plan delivered | Median frontage |
|---|---|---|
| Mappleton | 571 m | 359 m |
| Hornsea | 514 m | 0 m |
| Covehithe | 482 m | 482 m |
| Southwold | 482 m | 0 m |
| Aldbrough | 418 m | 383 m |
| Kilnsea and Easington | 369 m | 353 m |
| Mundesley | 262 m | 216 m |
| Trimingham | 262 m | 253 m |
Coastal flood warnings now
Erosion and coastal flooding often come with the same storms and high tides. The Environment Agency's live flood warnings for England, by county: flood warnings in England now. Each place page links the warnings for its own county. Wales and Scotland: Wales · Scotland.
What the scenarios mean
- Periods: medium term, up to 2055, and long term, up to 2105. Distances are cumulative over time and given in metres: the 2105 figure includes the erosion up to 2055.
- Shoreline Management Plan delivered: the policies in the Shoreline Management Plan for each stretch (hold the line, managed realignment, no active intervention) are carried out.
- No Future Intervention: no defences are maintained, repaired or built from now on.
- Climate: Present day climate (as in 2020); the Higher Central allowance, which uses UKCP18 RCP8.5 sea level rise at the 70th percentile; and the Upper End allowance, at the 95th percentile.
- The headline figures on these pages use the Shoreline Management Plan delivered with the Higher Central allowance, the combination the Environment Agency uses for coastal erosion with climate change in its National assessment of flood and coastal erosion risk in England 2024. Unlike the previous NCERM, the 2024 data gives one figure per scenario and no percentile range of erosion.
What these figures cannot tell you
- They are projections from a national model, not a forecast for a date or a house. The Environment Agency says the data is for guidance only, cannot provide details for individual properties, shows areas of land likely to be at erosion risk rather than the precise future position of the shoreline, and that erosion may happen faster or slower than shown.
- Cliffs often retreat in sudden falls and landslides rather than a steady amount each year, so a figure for 2055 does not mean the same distance is lost every year.
- For one address, use the government's Check coastal erosion management in your area service. Shoreline Management Plan policy units and the plans themselves are in the Shoreline Management Plan Explorer. The local council's coastal team holds local monitoring and plans.
- This site gives no property, planning or insurance advice.
Wales and Scotland are not covered
NCERM 2024 is the Environment Agency's map for England, and these pages show England only. Natural Resources Wales publishes a separate NCERM for Wales on DataMapWales. For Scotland, past and projected coastal change is mapped by Dynamic Coast.
About this data
Data: Environment Agency, NCERM 2024 (published 28 January 2025), Open Government Licence v3.0. Source: National Coastal Erosion Risk Mapping (NCERM) - National (2024), Environment Agency, published under the Open Government Licence v3.0. © Environment Agency copyright and/or database right 2025. All rights reserved. Read from the agency's OGC API Features service; built 2026-10-18.
- NCERM splits the coast into frontages, lengths of coast with consistent cliff and defence characteristics, and gives each one an erosion distance for each scenario. NCERM names no towns: each place here is a reference point (from OpenStreetMap, © OpenStreetMap contributors) and the frontages whose centre lies within the distance stated on its page, or a named stretch of coast.
- "Up to" is the largest distance among those frontages; the median is the middle one. A frontage the agency maps as fully held by defences can show 0 m.
- Ground instability zones, where the data has them, mark geologically complex cliffs where land has moved before; the names shown are the dataset's own.
Questions
How many properties in England are at risk of coastal erosion?
In its National assessment of flood and coastal erosion risk in England 2024, the Environment Agency says 3,500 properties are in areas at risk of coastal erosion in the period up to 2055, rising to about 10,100 up to 2105, assuming all actions in the Shoreline Management Plans are funded and carried out. With climate change (the higher central allowance) the figures are 5,200 and 19,700. If the plans were not carried out and no future investment were made, they would be 44,500 up to 2055 and 102,100 up to 2105 with climate change.
Which of these places have the largest projected erosion?
Of the places on this page, the largest projected erosion by 2105 with the Shoreline Management Plan delivered and the higher central climate allowance is at Mappleton (up to 571 m), Hornsea (up to 514 m), Covehithe (up to 482 m), Southwold (up to 482 m). These are the largest distances among the NCERM frontages near each place, not a ranking of the whole English coast.
What do "Hold the Line", "Managed Realignment" and "No Active Intervention" mean?
They are the Shoreline Management Plan policies for each stretch of coast. Hold the Line means keeping the shoreline where it is by maintaining or improving defences. Managed Realignment means allowing the shoreline to move back in a planned way, managing that change. No Active Intervention means there is no planned investment in defences, so the coast is left to change naturally. NCERM's "Shoreline Management Plan delivered" scenario assumes these policies are carried out; "No Future Intervention" assumes no defences are maintained.
Are Wales and Scotland included?
No. NCERM 2024 is the Environment Agency's map for England. Wales has its own NCERM, published by Natural Resources Wales on DataMapWales, and Scotland's coastal change and future erosion projections come from the Dynamic Coast project. This site does not yet show either.
Can this tell me whether a particular house is at risk?
NCERM is for guidance only. The Environment Agency says it cannot provide details for individual properties, that it shows areas of land likely to be at erosion risk rather than the precise future position of the shoreline, and that erosion may happen faster or slower than shown. For a single address use the government's "Check coastal erosion management in your area" service, and for local plans and monitoring contact the coastal team of the local council.
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