Zambezi river flood forecast

GloFAS reads the Zambezi at 3 places, from Katima Mulilo, where it drains 334,495 km², down to near Caia, where it drains 1,357,919 km². It is read in Zambia and Mozambique. For each point, the Global Flood Awareness System gives the chance that the river will exceed the flow it normally reaches only once every 2, 5 or 20 years.

GloFAS forecast of 19 Oct 2026

GloFAS rates the Zambezi Inactive at all 3 points GloFAS reads.

GloFAS forecasts are computer model output, published for information only. They are not a flood warning: only national and regional authorities issue flood warnings for their own area. A reporting point is a place on the model's river network, which may sit a few kilometres from the town it is named after.

Every point GloFAS reads on the Zambezi

Katima Mulilo, Zambia · drains 334,495 km²

No chance of exceeding even its 2-year flood flow in this forecast.

GloFAS alert level: Inactive · Peak expected: as currently ongoing · Falling

Tete, Mozambique · drains 1,100,465 km²

No chance of exceeding even its 2-year flood flow in this forecast.

GloFAS alert level: Inactive · Peak expected: in 11-14 days (on 2026-11-02) · Falling

near Caia, Mozambique · drains 1,357,919 km²

No chance of exceeding even its 2-year flood flow in this forecast.

GloFAS alert level: Inactive · Peak expected: as currently ongoing · Falling

Reported near the Zambezi in the last 30 days

Distance is to the nearest point GloFAS reads on this river, not to the river itself. An event near the river is not necessarily a river flood.

What a 2-, 5- or 20-year flood flow is

It is the river flow that, at that point, is reached or exceeded on average once every 2, 5 or 20 years. A 2-year flow typically fills the channel to its banks; a 5-year or 20-year flow goes further. It measures how unusual the flow is, not what it will damage — the same flow can flood a town that has no defences and pass one that does. And "once in 20 years" is an average: two can come in a row.

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Contains modified Copernicus Emergency Management Service information 2026 — the Global Flood Awareness System (GloFAS). GloFAS.