Tagus river flood forecast

GloFAS reads the Tagus at 2 places, from near Toledo, where it drains 27,212 km², down to Almourol, where it drains 67,022 km². It is read in Spain and Portugal. For each point, the Global Flood Awareness System gives the chance that the river will exceed the flow it normally reaches only once every 2, 5 or 20 years.

GloFAS forecast of 19 Oct 2026

GloFAS rates the Tagus Inactive at both points GloFAS reads.

GloFAS forecasts are computer model output, published for information only. They are not a flood warning: only national and regional authorities issue flood warnings for their own area. A reporting point is a place on the model's river network, which may sit a few kilometres from the town it is named after.

Every point GloFAS reads on the Tagus

near Toledo, Spain · drains 27,212 km²

No chance of exceeding even its 2-year flood flow in this forecast.

GloFAS alert level: Inactive · Peak expected: as currently ongoing · Rising

Almourol, Portugal · drains 67,022 km²

No chance of exceeding even its 2-year flood flow in this forecast.

GloFAS alert level: Inactive · Peak expected: in 11-14 days (on 2026-11-02)

Reported near the Tagus in the last 30 days

Distance is to the nearest point GloFAS reads on this river, not to the river itself. An event near the river is not necessarily a river flood.

What a 2-, 5- or 20-year flood flow is

It is the river flow that, at that point, is reached or exceeded on average once every 2, 5 or 20 years. A 2-year flow typically fills the channel to its banks; a 5-year or 20-year flow goes further. It measures how unusual the flow is, not what it will damage — the same flow can flood a town that has no defences and pass one that does. And "once in 20 years" is an average: two can come in a row.

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Contains modified Copernicus Emergency Management Service information 2026 — the Global Flood Awareness System (GloFAS). GloFAS.