Motagua river flood forecast
GloFAS reads the Motagua at 2 places, from Gualán, where it drains 12,028 km², down to near Morales, where it drains 14,495 km². It is read in Guatemala. For each point, the Global Flood Awareness System gives the chance that the river will exceed the flow it normally reaches only once every 2, 5 or 20 years.
GloFAS rates the Motagua Inactive at both points GloFAS reads.
GloFAS forecasts are computer model output, published for information only. They are not a flood warning: only national and regional authorities issue flood warnings for their own area. A reporting point is a place on the model's river network, which may sit a few kilometres from the town it is named after.
Every point GloFAS reads on the Motagua
Gualán, Guatemala · drains 12,028 km²
A 3% chance of exceeding its 2-year flood flow.
GloFAS alert level: Inactive · Peak expected: as currently ongoing · Falling
near Morales, Guatemala · drains 14,495 km²
A 15% chance of exceeding its 2-year flood flow.
GloFAS alert level: Inactive · Peak expected: as currently ongoing · Falling
Nothing has been reported within 100 km of this river in the last 30 days by the agencies this site follows.
What a 2-, 5- or 20-year flood flow is
It is the river flow that, at that point, is reached or exceeded on average once every 2, 5 or 20 years. A 2-year flow typically fills the channel to its banks; a 5-year or 20-year flow goes further. It measures how unusual the flow is, not what it will damage — the same flow can flood a town that has no defences and pass one that does. And "once in 20 years" is an average: two can come in a row.
Contains modified Copernicus Emergency Management Service information 2026 — the Global Flood Awareness System (GloFAS). GloFAS.