Aurora tonight: will you see the northern lights from the UK?
NOAA's forecast of the Kp index for tonight, the Kp each part of the UK needs to see the aurora, and the hours it is dark. Also useful for the northern US, Canada and northern Europe. All space weather data from the NOAA Space Weather Prediction Center; see also space weather now.
Will I see the northern lights tonight?
Possible in Shetland, Orkney and the far north of Scotland, if the sky is clear and dark. For the night of 19 to 20 October, NOAA expects up to Kp 4.67 (G1, minor storm). Further south it is less likely.
Tonight here means the night of 19 to 20 October: dark in Edinburgh from 19:23 BST to 06:33 BST. It is dark now.
NOAA could not be reached just now. This uses the last copy fetched at 19 Oct 18:45 UTC.
The Kp each part of the UK needs
Read from NOAA's map of how far south the aurora can be observed. At the edge of its range the aurora is low on the northern horizon; a phone camera often shows it when the eye barely can.
| Area | Kp needed | Tonight |
|---|---|---|
| Shetland, Orkney and the far north of Scotland Lerwick, Kirkwall, Wick, Thurso |
Kp 5 NOAA's Kp 5 line runs just north of the Scottish mainland |
Possible |
| The rest of Scotland Inverness, Aberdeen, Glasgow, Edinburgh |
Kp 6 between NOAA's Kp 5 and Kp 7 lines |
Unlikely |
| Northern England and Northern Ireland Newcastle, Belfast, Carlisle, Leeds, Manchester |
Kp 7 NOAA's Kp 7 line runs across northern England |
Very unlikely |
| The Midlands, Wales and East Anglia Birmingham, Cardiff, Nottingham, Norwich |
Kp 8 between NOAA's Kp 7 and Kp 9 lines |
Very unlikely |
| Southern England London, Bristol, Southampton, Plymouth |
Kp 9 NOAA's Kp 9 line runs along the English Channel |
Very unlikely |
Kp right now
Kp 0.00 (below storm level) · NOAA estimated planetary K-index, 19 Oct 18:40 UTC
Below the level any part of the UK needs. The minute-by-minute value moves quickly; the forecast below is in 3-hour blocks.
Tonight, hour by hour
| UK time | Forecast Kp | Northern Isles | Northern England | Southern England |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19:00 to 22:00 BST | 4.67 (G1) | Possible | Very unlikely | Very unlikely |
| 22:00 to 01:00 BST | 4.33 | Unlikely | Very unlikely | Very unlikely |
| 01:00 to 04:00 BST | 4.33 | Unlikely | Very unlikely | Very unlikely |
| 04:00 to 07:00 BST | 4.67 (G1) | Possible | Very unlikely | Very unlikely |
Hours of darkness tonight
- Lerwick: 19:15 BST to 06:25 BST, dark (sun 12° below the horizon)
- Edinburgh: 19:23 BST to 06:33 BST, dark (sun 12° below the horizon)
- London: 19:12 BST to 06:20 BST, dark (sun 12° below the horizon)
Calculated from the sun's position, not fetched. NOAA says the best aurora is usually within an hour or two of midnight, between 10 pm and 2 am local time.
NOAA's 3-day Kp forecast
Expected Kp for each 3-hour block in UTC (UK time is BST). Blocks during tonight's UK darkness are marked. G1 and above are NOAA's geomagnetic storm levels.
| UTC | Mon 19 Oct | Tue 20 Oct | Wed 21 Oct |
|---|---|---|---|
| 00:00-03:00 | 0.33 | 4.33 tonight |
3.33 |
| 03:00-06:00 | 0.33 | 4.67 (G1) tonight |
3.67 |
| 06:00-09:00 | 0.33 | 3.67 | 3.00 |
| 09:00-12:00 | 1.00 | 3.00 | 2.67 |
| 12:00-15:00 | 3.00 | 3.00 | 2.33 |
| 15:00-18:00 | 3.67 | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| 18:00-21:00 | 4.67 (G1) tonight |
3.33 | 3.33 |
| 21:00-00:00 | 4.33 tonight |
3.67 | 3.00 |
From the US, Canada and Europe
NOAA's Space Weather Scales say how far south the aurora has been seen at each level, in North America. Canada sits under the auroral zone, so most of it sees the aurora at lower Kp than the northern US.
- Kp 5 (G1): “aurora is commonly visible at high latitudes (northern Michigan and Maine)”
- Kp 6 (G2): “aurora has been seen as low as New York and Idaho (typically 55° geomagnetic lat.)”
- Kp 7 (G3): “aurora has been seen as low as Illinois and Oregon (typically 50° geomagnetic lat.)”
- Kp 8 (G4): “aurora has been seen as low as Alabama and northern California (typically 45° geomagnetic lat.)”
- Kp 9 (G5): “aurora has been seen as low as Florida and southern Texas (typically 40° geomagnetic lat.)”
For the rest of Europe, NOAA's aurora viewing map shows the same lines across Scandinavia and the continent.
Before you go out
- Check the cloud: the Met Office cloud cover forecast. This page does not forecast cloud.
- Get away from street lights and look north, ideally with a clear view of the northern horizon.
- A bright or full moon makes the aurora look fainter.
- The Kp forecast is NOAA's best estimate; storms arrive earlier, later or weaker than forecast.
Questions
Will I see the northern lights tonight in the UK?
Possible in Shetland, Orkney and the far north of Scotland, if the sky is clear and dark. For the night of 19 to 20 October, NOAA expects up to Kp 4.67 (G1, minor storm). Further south it is less likely.
What Kp do I need to see the aurora in the UK?
Read from NOAA's map of how far south the aurora can be observed: Shetland, Orkney and the far north of Scotland (Lerwick, Kirkwall, Wick, Thurso): about Kp 5; The rest of Scotland (Inverness, Aberdeen, Glasgow, Edinburgh): about Kp 6; Northern England and Northern Ireland (Newcastle, Belfast, Carlisle, Leeds, Manchester): about Kp 7; The Midlands, Wales and East Anglia (Birmingham, Cardiff, Nottingham, Norwich): about Kp 8; Southern England (London, Bristol, Southampton, Plymouth): about Kp 9. These are averages, and the aurora is usually low on the northern horizon at the edge of its range.
What is the Kp index right now?
NOAA's estimated planetary K-index was Kp 0.00 (below storm level) at 18:40 UTC. It is updated every minute; the 3-hour Kp is the official value.
What time is best to see the aurora tonight?
NOAA says the best aurora is usually within an hour or two of midnight, between 10 pm and 2 am local time. Tonight it is dark enough in Edinburgh from 19:23 BST to 06:33 BST.
Can I see the aurora from the US or Canada tonight?
NOAA's Space Weather Scales describe how far south the aurora has been seen at each level: Kp 5 (G1): aurora is commonly visible at high latitudes (northern Michigan and Maine); Kp 6 (G2): aurora has been seen as low as New York and Idaho (typically 55° geomagnetic lat.); Kp 7 (G3): aurora has been seen as low as Illinois and Oregon (typically 50° geomagnetic lat.); Kp 8 (G4): aurora has been seen as low as Alabama and northern California (typically 45° geomagnetic lat.); Kp 9 (G5): aurora has been seen as low as Florida and southern Texas (typically 40° geomagnetic lat.). NOAA's highest forecast Kp for the UK night tonight is 4.67; the North American night is later, so check the 3-day forecast table on this page for those hours.
Do cloud and the moon matter?
Yes. Cloud hides the aurora completely, so check a cloud forecast for your area; this page does not forecast cloud. NOAA notes that a full moon reduces how bright the aurora looks. Get away from street lights and face north.
Space weather now · UK weather warnings · United Kingdom overview
Sources: NOAA Space Weather Prediction Center 3-day forecast (issued 19 Oct 12:30 UTC), planetary K-index, tips on viewing the aurora and space weather scales; NOAA data is in the public domain. The Kp needed by area is read from NOAA's map and is approximate. Hours of darkness are calculated.