Extreme but Not Yet: Severity, Urgency and Certainty in Warnings

Direct answer: an official warning answers three separate questions, and the word shown in large type answers only one of them. Severity is how bad it would be. Urgency is how soon you need to act. Certainty is how sure the agency is that it will happen at all. A warning can be Extreme in severity while being only Likely, and about tomorrow.

A real example from this morning

On 14 September 2026 this site’s feed filled with around thirty items titled Forestfire, district after district across Kazakhstan, every one marked Extreme. Read quickly, that looks like a country on fire.

The warning file behind one of them — issued by Kazakhstan’s meteorological service for Ulytau district — says something more precise:

• Severity: Extreme.
• Urgency: Future.
• Certainty: Likely.
• Sent at 11:57 UTC on 14 September, for a period beginning at 09:00 UTC on 15 September.
• The area is the whole district, not a point on a map.

That is a forecast that dangerous fire conditions are expected across a district the next day. It is not a report that a fire is burning, and it does not say where one would start. Both readings are “an extreme fire warning”; they call for very different responses.

The three questions

These fields come from the Common Alerting Protocol (CAP), an international format many national weather and emergency services use to publish warnings, including those this site receives through the WMO Alert Hub. The standard defines each one with a short list of values.

Severity — how bad would it be?

• Extreme — an extraordinary threat to life or property.
• Severe — a significant threat to life or property.
• Moderate — a possible threat to life or property.
• Minor — minimal to no known threat.

Severity describes the event if it happens. It says nothing about whether it will.

Certainty — how sure is the agency?

• Observed — determined to have occurred, or to be ongoing.
• Likely — more likely than not, roughly above a 50% chance.
• Possible — possible but not likely, roughly 50% or less.
• Unlikely — not expected to occur.

Observed is the only value that means “this is happening”. Everything else is a judgement about the future.

Urgency — how soon should you act?

• Immediate — act now.
• Expected — act soon, within the next hour.
• Future — act in the near future.
• Past — action is no longer required.

The standard says the three are meant to be read together: they collectively distinguish a less emphatic warning from a more emphatic one. No single field is the warning.

How the combinations read

• Extreme + Observed + Immediate — it is happening, it is dangerous, act now. This is the rarest combination and the one that matters most.
• Extreme + Likely + Future — the Kazakhstan fire case. Prepare today: know your route out, avoid anything that could start a fire, and watch for an update.
• Moderate + Observed + Immediate — a lesser hazard that is already here, such as fog on a road you are driving. Lower stakes, but now.
• Anything + Past — the danger has passed or the warning has been superseded.

Two more fields worth a glance

Onset is when the hazard is expected to begin, and expires is when the warning stops applying. The time a warning was sent can be a day before its onset. A warning also carries a message type: Update replaces an earlier warning, and Cancel withdraws one. The Kazakhstan file above was an update to one sent the day before.

Fire danger is the clearest case

Fire warnings show the gap between these fields better than any other hazard, because so many of them are about conditions rather than flames: dry fuel, heat, low humidity and wind. The same day, Chinese observatories issued orange warnings for “forest and grassland fire risk” — the word is in the title. A fire-danger warning over a district and a satellite detecting heat at one spot are different kinds of information; what satellite fire detections do and do not show covers the second.

What this site shows, and what it does not yet

For warnings that arrive in this format we show the issuing agency’s severity, not our own judgement. Two limits are worth knowing:

• The time shown on the event is when the warning was issued, which can be well before the hazard it describes.
• We store urgency and certainty but do not display them on event pages at present. Until we do, an Extreme warning here should be read as “extreme if it happens”, and the original bulletin checked for when and how likely.

When a warning names an action, the action is the content. Follow the agency that issued it and your local authorities.

Related reading: what alert colours mean around the world, how to read forecast probabilities, China’s four warning colours and how wildfires spread.

Frequently asked questions

Does an Extreme warning mean the disaster is already happening?

No. Severity says how bad the event would be. Whether it is happening is a separate field, certainty, and only the value Observed means it has occurred or is ongoing. An Extreme warning can be Likely and about the next day.

What do urgency, severity and certainty mean in a warning?

They are three fields defined by the Common Alerting Protocol. Severity is how bad it would be (Extreme, Severe, Moderate, Minor). Urgency is how soon to act (Immediate, Expected, Future, Past). Certainty is how sure the agency is (Observed, Likely, Possible, Unlikely). The standard says to read them together.

What does Likely mean in an alert?

In the Common Alerting Protocol, Likely means more likely than not - a probability above about 50%. Possible means about 50% or less, and Unlikely means the event is not expected to occur.

Is a fire danger warning the same as a fire?

No. Many fire warnings forecast dangerous conditions - dry fuel, heat, low humidity and wind - over a whole district, often for the following day. They warn that a fire could start and spread quickly, not that one is burning.

Sources

• OASIS - Common Alerting Protocol Version 1.2 (specification)
• Kazhydromet CAP warning for Ulytau district, 14 September 2026 (via meteoalert.meteoinfo.ru)

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